Revenue Target Met, But Nigerians Yet to Feel Relief

Despite President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s announcement that Nigeria has met its 2025 revenue target, experts and citizens argue that the gains remain invisible in the daily lives of Nigerians still grappling with inflation, food shortages, unemployment, and poor infrastructure.

President Tinubu, addressing former members of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) at the Presidential Villa, declared that Nigeria had stopped borrowing from local banks and that reforms were stabilising the economy. He cited improvements in the exchange rate from ₦1,900/$ earlier this year to about ₦1,450/$ as proof of progress.

Under the 2025 Appropriation Act, the government set a revenue target of ₦18.32 trillion, with ₦7.94 trillion expected from oil and ₦10.39 trillion from non-oil sources. By August, collections had surpassed ₦20.59 trillion, with non-oil revenue accounting for nearly 75 per cent. The Federal Government also reported gains from improved VAT, company income tax, and oil output, which rose to 1.8 million barrels per day.

Monthly allocations to states and local governments have doubled, crossing ₦2 trillion in July. However, public debt has ballooned from ₦97.34 trillion in December 2023 to ₦149 trillion, with projections it may hit ₦200 trillion by year-end. The 2025 budget deficit of ₦13 trillion will still rely heavily on borrowing.

While the World Bank acknowledges macroeconomic stability from reforms such as subsidy removal and exchange rate unification, it warns that inflation, food insecurity, and security threats continue to undermine recovery. Experts agree, stressing that meeting revenue targets must translate into better welfare for citizens.

Economist Dr. Muda Yusuf cautioned against “money illusion,” warning that rising revenue figures may not reflect real growth once inflation and naira depreciation are factored in. He noted that Nigeria’s $36 billion budget is disproportionately small compared to peers like South Africa and Egypt.

Similarly, Prof. Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University said, “For the average Nigerian struggling with unemployment and high living costs, revenue milestones mean little unless invested in welfare, healthcare, education, and infrastructure.”

Other analysts, including investment banker Tolulope Alayande and Pan Atlantic University’s Prof. Adi Bongo, urged the government to deepen reforms, boost food production, and reduce borrowing to free up the private sector.

Experts conclude that while revenue collection has reached record highs, the real test lies in translating fiscal gains into jobs, food security, reliable infrastructure, and improved living standards for Nigerians.