Obi, Atiku’s 2027 ambitions falter amid defections, internal crises in LP, PDP

With less than 18 months to the 2027 general elections, Nigeria’s political landscape is undergoing major realignments that threaten the survival of key opposition figures, particularly Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Both parties are grappling with internal divisions, mass defections, and weakening regional bases, developments analysts say could reshape the country’s opposition map ahead of the next polls.


—

PDP loses Southeast stronghold

The latest blow came from the defection of Enugu State governor, Peter Mbah, from the PDP to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Mbah’s move effectively ended PDP’s 26-year dominance in the South-East, once regarded as its political fortress. With the APC now controlling three of the region’s five states, only Anambra (APGA) and Abia (LP) remain outside its reach.

However, insiders say both Anambra and Abia governors have shown growing alignment with President Bola Tinubu’s administration, signalling possible defections before 2027. This development narrows Obi’s southern base, as his 2023 presidential momentum relied heavily on South-East and South-South support.



PDP’s internal battle deepens

Within the PDP, power tussles persist. Some party elders are reportedly urging former President Goodluck Jonathan to return and lead the 2027 ticket, a move aimed at countering Atiku’s northern dominance and reviving PDP’s southern appeal.
But the proposal has divided the party, with other factions backing Oyo State governor, Seyi Makinde. Analysts warn that indecision over zoning and potential legal challenges to Jonathan’s eligibility could further destabilise the party.

Meanwhile, sources hint that two South-South governors are also considering defection to the APC, a development that would further diminish PDP’s chances of reclaiming power.



Atiku’s northern base under threat

Atiku’s influence in the North may also weaken, with reports that Taraba State governor, Agbu Kefas (PDP), and Kano State governor, Abba Yusuf (NNPP), are being courted by the APC.
Should these moves materialise, the PDP’s organisational structure in the North-Central and North-West zones could collapse, leaving Atiku politically isolated in the region that once gave him his strongest backing.


Labour Party in disarray

Peter Obi’s Labour Party, which electrified young voters in 2023, is now mired in leadership crises, defections, and waning enthusiasm.
Out of LP’s 35 federal lawmakers, 12 have reportedly defected to the APC and ADC, while 24 of its 38 state legislators have also switched parties, citing “lack of direction” and “poor leadership.”

Although Obi’s 2023 performance was historic, winning over six million votes and 12 states including Lagos and the FCT, the movement has since lost steam. Observers say Obi has struggled to maintain engagement with LP structures or the “Obidient” movement that powered his campaign.

A former LP lawmaker, Victor Okechukwu, lamented: “Since our election, there’s been no caucus meeting or coordination. Everyone just fends for himself.”


Leadership rift and dwindling support

The LP remains divided between factions loyal to National Chairman Julius Abure and Lamidi Apapa. The prolonged court battles have crippled party cohesion and alienated supporters.
Many key allies, including Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, PANDEF, and the National Consultative Front, say they have not been consulted since the election.

A former campaign aide summed it up: “Obi mistook social enthusiasm for political structure.”


Obi’s indecision and ADC alliance

Obi’s political direction remains uncertain. While he has attended coalition meetings led by the African Democratic Congress (ADC), he has been absent from major LP events, fueling speculation about a possible defection.
When asked about his next step, Obi said: “What matters is a platform that unites Nigerians around competence and character. Party labels don’t solve our problems; values do.”

Analysts interpret this as another sign of political drift. Dr Emeka Umeagbalasi, a political scientist, observed: “Obi’s greatest mistake was failing to transform a protest vote into a sustainable political structure.”


Labour crisis and Southeast retreat

The LP’s long-standing alliance with organised labour has also fractured. Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) president, Joe Ajaero, recently declared that “what exists today is not the Labour Party founded by workers,” hinting that the NLC may back another platform in 2027.

Even in Obi’s South-East stronghold, defections have intensified. In Enugu, eight of LP’s 14 assembly members have joined the APC. In Abia, Governor Alex Otti’s growing autonomy has further widened the gap between him and the party’s national leadership.

A political observer remarked: “Obi must learn that political structures aren’t built on social media. He needs real grassroots engagement.”


Analysts warn of 2027 risks

Experts warn that Obi’s indecision between LP and ADC could render him politically irrelevant by 2027. His moralistic style, once a strength, now alienates potential allies.

PDP chieftain Bode George criticised Obi’s current trajectory, calling his ADC alignment “a political miscalculation.” He said: “If Obi had stayed in the PDP, this would have been his best chance as a southern candidate.”

Afenifere elder, Senator Femi Okurounmu, also doubts Obi’s ability to reclaim the South-West: “It would be difficult for him to win any South-West state again in 2027. He failed to consolidate his success.”

He advised Obi to reconcile with the NLC and rebuild the LP’s worker roots: “If he joins PDP or ADC, he may not get their ticket either.”


‘We’re rebuilding for 2027’, Obi’s camp

LP spokesman, Dr Tanko Yunusa, insists Obi remains focused on repositioning before the next polls. “We are doing everything possible to rebuild the structure before 2027,” he said.

LP Deputy Youth Leader (South), Barry Avotu Johnson, cautioned that Obi’s flirtation with other parties could damage his credibility. “He should return fully to the LP. It remains his strongest platform,” he urged.

Political analyst Olalekan Ojo added that Obi still enjoys national credibility but must consolidate his base: “His success depends on rebuilding a solid platform, a strong coalition, and restoring voter trust.”