The world awaits the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize today, even as United States President Donald Trump continues to express strong interest in winning the prestigious award a desire that experts say remains unlikely.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee will unveil the laureate at 11:00 a.m. (0900 GMT) in Oslo, just a day after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire and hostage-release deal aimed at ending the two-year-long Gaza conflict.
Although Trump’s administration has been credited with pressuring both sides toward the agreement, analysts say the deal came too late to influence the committee’s decision, which was finalised earlier in the week.
“The Gaza deal has absolutely no significance for this year’s choice,” historian and Peace Prize expert Asle Sveen told AFP. “The Nobel Committee had already made its decision. Trump will not win the prize this year I’m 100 percent certain.”
Sveen noted that Trump’s long-standing support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his administration’s provision of military aid to Israel contradict the principles outlined in Alfred Nobel’s will for the prize.
Since returning to the White House for a second term in January, Trump has repeatedly insisted that he deserves the award for his role in resolving global conflicts a claim widely disputed by foreign policy experts.
Speaking to AFP on Thursday, Trump said: “Nobody in history has solved eight wars in a period of nine months. And I’ve stopped eight wars. That’s never happened before. Gaza was the biggest of them all.”
However, observers in Oslo argue that Trump’s “America First” agenda runs counter to the global cooperation and peace advocacy that the Nobel Peace Prize represents.
This year’s field features 338 nominees individuals and organisations though the list will remain sealed for 50 years. Among those rumoured are Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a volunteer network providing aid in war-torn regions; Yulia Navalnaya, widow of late Russian dissident Alexei Navalny; and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).
Analysts also suggest the committee might honour institutions championing international cooperation, such as the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), or the Palestinian relief agency (UNRWA). Others speculate that bodies like the International Court of Justice or press freedom groups such as Reporters Without Borders could be considered.
Last year’s award went to Nihon Hidankyo, the association of survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings, in recognition of their decades-long campaign against nuclear weapons.
The Nobel Peace Prize includes a diploma, a gold medal, and a $1.2 million cash award. Following today’s announcement, the 2025 Nobel season will conclude with the Economics Prize on Monday.
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