Nigeria Still Imports 72% of Petrol Despite Dangote Refinery Operations

Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol remains high despite the commencement of operations at the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, with new data showing that imports accounted for 72.64 per cent of total national petrol consumption over the past nine months.

Figures obtained from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) revealed that between October 2024 and July 2025, the country consumed 12.5 billion litres of petrol. Of this, 9.08 billion litres were imported, while only 3.5 billion litres came from domestic refining — largely supplied by the Dangote Refinery.

The data suggests that Nigeria’s long-standing goal of achieving energy self-sufficiency remains distant. In October 2024, the country imported about 1.25 billion litres of petrol, averaging 40.4 million litres daily, while Dangote’s supply represented just 14.9 per cent of national demand.

Although domestic supply improved briefly in early 2025 with Dangote Refinery meeting up to 45 per cent of national demand in January and February the trend reversed from May 2025 due to operational disruptions. By July, Dangote’s contribution had dropped to 31.5 per cent, following a temporary shutdown caused by a labour dispute.

Despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, Nigeria continues to struggle with inadequate feedstock supply for local refineries. In 2024, Dangote Refinery imported nearly 20 per cent of its crude oil from the United States, highlighting challenges in securing sufficient local crude under Nigeria’s current production constraints.

Energy analysts warn that without addressing issues of crude availability and pipeline security, Nigeria’s refining dream could remain elusive.

Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, NJ Ayuk, lamented the continent’s $15.7 billion shortfall in energy infrastructure investment, adding that regulatory bottlenecks and cross-border trade barriers are worsening the problem.

“You can send crude and LPG across borders, but an African holding an African passport can’t move freely,” Ayuk said, stressing the need for regional cooperation and investment in refining capacity.

Meanwhile, several African nations are fast-tracking refinery construction projects to reduce reliance on imported fuel a move that could heighten competition for Nigeria’s refining ambitions.

Ethiopia, Senegal, Angola, Mozambique, Djibouti, Cameroon, Ghana, South Africa, and Uganda are all developing or reviving refineries with a combined capacity of over one million barrels per day, potentially rivaling Nigeria’s Dangote and NNPC facilities.

In Ethiopia, work is progressing on the Gode Refinery, a 70,000-barrel-per-day facility in partnership with China’s GCL Group. Senegal is planning a second national refinery valued at between $2 billion and $5 billion, while Angola’s Cabinda refinery is expected to begin operations later this year. Uganda’s Hoima Refinery and Ghana’s upgraded Tema Refinery are also moving closer to full-scale production.

According to the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA), Africa will require at least six refineries of Dangote’s scale to meet growing demand and achieve fuel self-sufficiency. ARDA’s Executive Secretary, Anibor Kragha, warned that regulatory uncertainty, financing bottlenecks, and global energy transition pressures are deterring vital investments.

“Africa’s vulnerability to fuel price shocks will persist until refining investment matches consumption growth,” Kragha cautioned.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in its latest outlook, projected that Africa faces a $100 billion refining investment gap over the next 25 years with $40 billion required by 2030 for new facilities and $60 billion for upgrades and expansions thereafter.

OPEC further estimates that the continent’s oil demand will rise from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 to 4.5 million barrels per day by 2050, a development that could reduce crude exports by more than one million barrels daily and reshape global energy trade patterns.

As Africa races to close its refining gap, Nigeria’s struggle to balance domestic production and crude supply highlights the broader challenge facing the continent turning vast oil resources into sustainable energy independence.