Finance Minister Edun Confirms ₦30 Trillion Revenue Deficit, Casts Doubt on Tinubu’s 2025 Budget Claims

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has released figures that directly contradict President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s earlier assertion that the country had already met its 2025 revenue target. According to the minister, only ₦10.7 trillion has been generated so far out of the projected ₦40.8 trillion, leaving a shortfall of about ₦30 trillion.

President Tinubu had previously assured Nigerians that his administration had surpassed the 2025 revenue benchmark ahead of schedule and that the country was no longer relying on borrowing to fund its budget. He made the statement while hosting members of the Buhari Organisation at the Presidential Villa in Abuja, crediting an aggressive non-oil revenue drive for the purported success.

At the time, the President said the strategy had generated enough inflows to meet annual revenue projections by August, significantly reducing dependence on external loans. “Today I can stand here before you to brag: Nigeria is not borrowing. We have met our revenue target for the year and we met it in August,” Tinubu said in September.

However, Edun’s latest briefing presents a starkly different fiscal reality. Speaking during an interactive session with the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning, the minister disclosed that the federal government is facing a substantial revenue deficit in the 2025 fiscal year, raising concerns about the sustainability of public finances.

The meeting was held to examine the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), which were recently forwarded to the House by President Tinubu for legislative review and approval.

Edun explained that the government had projected ₦40.8 trillion in revenue to finance the ₦54.9 trillion 2025 “budget of restoration,” aimed at stabilising the economy, ensuring security, and rebuilding prosperity. He noted, however, that actual revenue performance has fallen far short of expectations.

Providing details, the minister said revenue inflows for the year are now expected to close at about ₦10.7 trillion. He attributed the sharp decline mainly to weak oil and gas earnings, particularly lower-than-anticipated Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax from oil firms, as well as underperformance in several non-oil revenue streams.

Edun further revealed that contrary to earlier assurances, the federal government had borrowed approximately ₦14.1 trillion during the year to cover the funding gap created by the revenue shortfall.

The revelation has reignited debate over Nigeria’s revenue projections, fiscal assumptions, and the credibility of official economic narratives, as lawmakers and stakeholders assess the implications for future budgets, debt sustainability, and the broader economic reform agenda of the Tinubu administration.