Trump’s Military Threat Triggers Investor Anxiety as FG, Experts React

The recent threat by U.S. President Donald Trump to launch military action in Nigeria has unsettled investors and heightened political and economic tension. While the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has warned of possible capital flight, Oxford Economics has offered a more measured assessment, assuring that Nigeria’s oil trade remains secure.

Trump, in a late-Saturday post on social media, claimed he had ordered the Pentagon to draft plans for potential military intervention in Nigeria to “stop the killing of Christians by Islamist extremists.” He vowed to act “with guns blazing” if Abuja fails to address what he described as “religious persecution.”


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Economic Implications

Dr. Muda Yusuf, Director of the CPPE, cautioned that even an unverified threat from a global superpower could damage investor confidence and tarnish Nigeria’s reputation as a safe investment destination.

“The statement, though based on flawed intelligence and misjudged assumptions, carries weight simply because it came from the U.S. President,” Yusuf said.
He warned that Trump’s remarks could trigger capital flight, falling stock values, higher risk ratings, and a weaker naira.

The CPPE recommended swift diplomatic engagement with Washington and urgent reforms to reassure investors, stressing that “Nigeria’s security challenges are multifaceted, not religious.”

Conversely, Oxford Economics assessed that the trade impact may remain limited. The U.S. was Nigeria’s sixth-largest export destination in Q2 2025, accounting for ₦1.4 trillion in exports, 68% of which were crude oil. The firm noted that despite Trump’s tariff increase to 15%, oil remained largely exempt, cushioning the economic effect.

The firm further highlighted that Nigeria received over $1 billion in U.S. aid in 2023, alongside $32.5 million in food support for internally displaced persons, but warned that any suspension of aid could hurt humanitarian programmes.

Oxford Economics downplayed fears of a total oil import ban, noting that China and India would readily absorb displaced Nigerian crude supplies.


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FG Dismisses Trump’s Allegations

Following Trump’s statement, National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu convened an emergency meeting with military and intelligence chiefs at the National Counter Terrorism Centre, Abuja, to review the situation.

The Federal Government later described Trump’s “Christian genocide” claim as “grossly inaccurate and based on flawed U.S. intelligence.”

Addressing journalists at the Joint Security Press Briefing, Lanre Issa-Onilu, Director-General of the National Orientation Agency (NOA), said:
“This is another case of American intelligence failure. It happened in Iraq and Libya; this is yet another.”

He revealed that security data for October showed a 33% rise in arrests of terror-linked suspects and a 12% drop in fatalities compared with September, citing improved coordination among security agencies.

Issa-Onilu stressed that Nigeria’s insecurity is driven by criminal and economic motives, not religious divisions, and pointed out that several top security officials are Christians, a fact that contradicts claims of religious bias.

“The same U.S. that praises our military for professionalism cannot accuse us of religious persecution,” he said.


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EFCC Defends Legal Position

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) presented its two-year report, citing recoveries of ₦566.3 billion and $411.6 million, as well as 1,502 property forfeitures.

Responding to questions about terror financing, EFCC spokesperson Dele Oyewale said the agency is legally barred from revealing suspects’ identities:
“Our duty is to block and trace terror funds, not to publish names. The law forbids disclosure.”


Regional Fallout: Chad Closes Border

In a related development, Chad announced the immediate closure of its border with Nigeria following rumours of U.S. troop movement in the Sahel.

President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno reportedly ordered a full military lockdown, deploying armoured vehicles and elite troops to border areas.
Security analyst Zagazola Makama confirmed that Chad’s move was precautionary, aimed at preventing infiltration by militants or foreign forces.


Political Reactions

Peter Obi, Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, urged diplomacy and restraint, describing Trump’s threat as alarming.
“Nigeria is indeed facing unprecedented insecurity,” Obi said, “but U.S. military action would worsen the crisis.”

He blamed the ruling APC for poor governance, citing “a lack of competence, patriotism, and commitment” in addressing insecurity, while urging stronger bilateral dialogue.

Meanwhile, FCT Minister Nyesom Wike accused the opposition of exploiting religion to destabilise the Tinubu administration.
“This is about stopping Tinubu’s return to power, not about religion,” he said.
Wike dismissed Trump’s remarks as “politically motivated and factually wrong,” insisting no government has invested more in security than the current one.


Conclusion

As diplomatic channels engage to calm tensions, experts warn that Trump’s rhetoric could have far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s economy, regional stability, and international image.
The Federal Government, however, insists that its sovereignty and unity are non-negotiable, and that “Nigeria’s challenges will be solved through cooperation, not coercion.”