Buhari Laid to Rest as His Death Sparks Political Reckoning Ahead of 2027 Elections

The remains of former President Muhammadu Buhari were interred on Tuesday in his hometown of Daura, Katsina State, in a solemn ceremony that drew dignitaries from across Nigeria and beyond. Buhari, who served as both a military Head of State and later as a two-term democratic president under the All Progressives Congress (APC), left behind a complex legacy and a political vacuum with far-reaching implications.

As tributes continue to pour in, political analysts and party insiders are turning their attention to the 2027 general elections, which the APC must now face without the influence of Buhari — a man whose consistent 12-million-vote base played a critical role in past victories. His death comes at a time when the opposition, under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), is forming a formidable coalition featuring key figures like Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, Nasir El-Rufai, and Peter Obi, all aiming to wrest power from the ruling party.

APC chieftain and Pro-Chancellor of the Federal University of Transportation, Daura, Wahab Owokoniran, acknowledged the former president’s death as a significant loss for the party. However, he expressed confidence in President Bola Tinubu’s ability to navigate the post-Buhari landscape, describing him as a “master strategist” with decades of political bridge-building across Nigeria. Owokoniran said the party may lose some ground but will likely regain it, stressing that a new northern rallying figure will eventually emerge.

Conversely, Salihu Lukman, a former APC stalwart and now part of the ADC coalition, warned that without Buhari’s political weight, northern politicians can no longer rely on endorsements to secure electoral victories. Lukman argued that Buhari’s popularity had made many candidates complacent, choosing loyalty over grassroots engagement. He urged a shift toward humility and genuine voter outreach, especially in the absence of a unifying northern figure.

In a related analysis, Nduka Odo, a communications scholar at Peaceland University, warned that Buhari’s death could destabilize the APC if not carefully managed. He noted that the party had already suffered fractures, with former allies like Atiku, El-Rufai, and Amaechi now aligning under the ADC banner. According to Odo, these departures signal deeper ideological and structural shifts within the APC, leaving Tinubu to lead with a shrinking coalition.

Odo argued that while Buhari had once been the rallying figure for northern votes, especially due to his centralized support base, economic hardship under his administration has weakened that loyalty. He cited videos of northern residents celebrating Buhari’s death as evidence of growing discontent, compounded by worsening conditions under Tinubu’s government.

He also raised concerns about internal tensions within the APC, particularly speculations that Tinubu might replace Vice President Kashim Shettima in 2027. This, he warned, could further alienate the party’s northern bloc, especially since Shettima hails from Buhari’s political base, the CPC. The recent discord at the APC Northeast convention highlights these emerging fractures.

Odo dismissed the claim that Buhari consistently held 12 million votes as overly simplistic, noting that the victories of 2015 and 2019 were due to strategic alliances, particularly with Tinubu’s ACN and the now-defunct new PDP.

Finally, he criticized Bayo Onanuga for releasing a video crediting Tinubu for Buhari’s presidential success on the very day of Buhari’s burial, calling it insensitive and ill-timed.

With Buhari’s passing, many believe the APC faces an uphill battle toward 2027 — unless it successfully redefines its identity and manages emerging internal and external threats.