Nigerian Stocks Gain N25.7 Trillion YtD, But Experts Warn of Impending Market Correction

Nigerian Equities Market Surges N25.7 Trillion in 7 Months, Experts Warn of Imminent Price Correction

The Nigerian stock market has seen exceptional growth in the first seven months of 2025, delivering over ₦25.7 trillion in year-to-date (YtD) gains. This historic rally has been fueled by improved macroeconomic stability, favourable monetary policies, and rising investor confidence, both local and foreign.

Market capitalisation soared from ₦62.66 trillion in December 2024 to ₦88.4 trillion by the end of July 2025. The NGX All Share Index (ASI), a key performance benchmark, jumped 35.9% YtD, closing July at 139,863.53 points, up from 102,926.40 points at the end of 2024. July alone contributed a staggering 16.5% return—nearly half of the year’s total gains.

Investor participation also spiked, with July seeing 22 billion shares traded, a sharp rise from June’s 13.8 billion. The market closed in the green in five out of seven months, backed by a stable exchange rate, liberalized sectors, and favourable policy reforms.

However, analysts are urging caution. While some believe the rally—dubbed the “Tinubu Boom”—may persist, others warn that a market correction is imminent.

Sectoral Overview

Industrial Goods led the pack with a 71.9% YtD gain. Top performers included Tripple Gee (+88.44%), Lafarge (+70.87%), Meyer (+64.18%), and BUA Cement (+41.51%).

Banking Sector grew 49.3% YtD. Wema Bank led with a 47.16% gain in July, followed by UBA (+40.21%), Zenith Bank (+34.33%), and Access Holdings (+26.24%). The sector recorded the highest trading volume of 6.48 billion shares.

Insurance Sector gained 23.53% YtD. Sovereign Trust Insurance rose 41.04%, followed by NEM (+34.08%) and AIICO (+33.54%). Trading volume hit 3.27 billion shares.

Consumer Goods advanced by 11.14%. Cadbury (+63.86%), McNichols (+60.87%), and Dangote Sugar (+53.61%) led the gains.

Oil and Gas was the lone laggard, declining -10.16% YtD, though July posted a modest 1.72% gain, led by Oando (+16.32%).


Broader Market Indices Also Show Strong Gains

NGX Lotus (+67.14%)

NGX Meristem (+58.83%)

NGX Africa Bank Value (+54.58%)

NGX Pension (+52.94%)

NGX Premium (+51.92%)

NGX 30 (+36.83%)

NGX Mainboard (+33.08%)


Analysts’ Perspective

Analysts at Cordros Capital remain optimistic, expecting the rally to continue as investors reposition in anticipation of further earnings growth. They also note a shift from fixed-income to equities due to subdued yields.

Conversely, David Adonri, Executive Vice Chairman at High Cap Securities, raised flags about the rally’s sustainability. He described July’s surge as the market reaching full-year 2024 levels in just seven months and predicted a likely price correction in Q3 2025. However, he emphasized that market fundamentals remain strong, bolstered by improved corporate earnings and macroeconomic reforms.

Adonri also highlighted the resilience provided by the dominance of domestic investors over foreign portfolio flows, which often introduce volatility when withdrawn. He cautioned investors to employ sound risk management as volatility is an inherent feature of equity markets.

Tajudeen Olayinka, an investment banker and stockbroker, shared a similar sentiment, stressing that while macroeconomic improvements have driven demand for equities, the rally should not be mistaken for a full economic recovery. He anticipated that some companies might soon issue new shares or bonuses to moderate the pace of price increases.

Olayinka warned against anti-market policies like the proposed 30% capital gains tax, which he believes could deter investment. However, he reassured that rising domestic investor participation could mitigate the impact of any withdrawal of foreign capital.

While the Nigerian stock market has delivered remarkable returns in 2025, buoyed by stable macroeconomic conditions and renewed investor confidence, experts caution that a price correction may be looming. As the market adjusts to these record gains, investors are advised to remain vigilant and adopt strategies that prioritize long-term value and risk management.