Nigeria’s Reliance on Fuel, Crude Imports Persists Despite Price Drops and Regulatory Changes

Despite a change in regulatory leadership and fresh appointments to key oil and gas boards, Nigeria will continue to depend heavily on imported petrol and crude oil in the short term, as ongoing challenges in local refining persist.

Amid rising tension between private refiners, marketers and government authorities, concerns have emerged over delays in issuing import permits by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). Data shows Nigeria and other West African countries imported over 1.8 million metric tonnes of petrol in November and December 2025 — the highest volume since 2024.

Imported fuel accounted for 73 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol consumption in November, signalling that the so-called “petrol price war” is far from over.

Prices Remain High Despite Dangote Reduction

Pump prices remained above ₦800 per litre nationwide yesterday. In Abuja, TotalEnergies sold PMS at ₦920, while MRS dispensed at ₦739 with long queues. NNPC Retail and other stations sold at about ₦840 per litre, despite Dangote Refinery cutting its ex-refinery price to ₦699.

Unlike past situations where single suppliers triggered price crashes, many marketers including MEMAN, DAPMAN and IPMAN have resisted reducing prices.

Surge in Imports as Regional Supply Floods Market

According to S&P Global, about 1.8 million metric tonnes of petrol arrived West Africa from Europe in November and December 2025, marking the highest supply volume on the route in 12 months. Fuel prices across West Africa have since fallen due to plentiful supply and Dangote’s price cuts.

However, Nigeria’s structural supply weaknesses remain. Between November 2 and 30, at least 179 vessels discharged petroleum products into Nigeria, indicating continued large-scale import reliance despite expectations that local refining should now dominate.

Domestic Refining Struggles to Meet Demand

Nigeria’s petrol consumption averaged 52.9 million litres daily in November 2025. But Dangote Refinery — currently the country’s only major operational PMS producer — supplied just 18 to 23.5 million litres per day, below its 35 million litres target and far short of national needs.

All four government-owned refineries, though having a theoretical combined capacity of over 400,000 barrels per day, produced no petrol during the period.

Operational challenges at Dangote Refinery worsened the gap, following maintenance shutdowns and reduced crude processing due to RFCC issues. Crude deliveries to Dangote also dropped to 11.5 million barrels in November, lower than the six-month average.

Imports to Remain Nigeria’s Safety Net

Industry analysts warn that Nigeria cannot abruptly exit fuel imports despite the arrival of new regulatory heads.

Energy experts argue Nigeria needs transparent regulation, infrastructure upgrades and competitive fairness to gradually cut its costly dependence on imports. Others insist a balanced mix of local refining and imports is safer than relying on a single supplier.

Community leaders also warned against concentrating the nation’s energy supply in one refinery, stressing that Nigeria must ramp crude oil production to 4–5 million barrels per day to sustain refining, revenue and naira stability.

New Regulators Face Huge Expectations

With the appointment of Saidu Mohammed (NMDPRA) and Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan (NUPRC), stakeholders are calling for institutional reform, predictable approvals, transparency, and reduced political interference in line with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

Industry bodies such as MEMAN expressed optimism that newly constituted governing boards will strengthen oversight and help regulators function more effectively.