Fact-Check: Tinubu’s Independence Day Economic Claims Under the Microscope

Lagos, Nigeria, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu made 18 economic claims during his address marking Nigeria’s 65th Independence Anniversary, ranging from GDP growth and inflation to reserves, revenue, and social programmes. A detailed fact-check has now assessed these statements, revealing a mixed bag of accuracy.

According to Africa Check’s analysis, 11 of Tinubu’s claims were accurate, one mostly accurate, two misleading, three unproven, and one outright false.

Among the verified claims:

Tinubu stated that Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.23% in Q2 2025 a figure confirmed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) as the highest quarterly growth in four years.

He also claimed that inflation had dropped to 20.12% in August 2025, which is supported by recent data from the NBS Consumer Price Index (CPI), making both assertions correct.

The president said foreign reserves had reached US$42.03 billion, the highest since 2019. This was corroborated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which reported reserves of US$42.3 billion as of September 29.

On social spending, Tinubu claimed that N330 billion was disbursed to 8 million households under the National Social Investment Programme (NSIP). Public records and ministry figures confirm payments to about 8.1 million households, supporting this claim.


However, several statements fell short of full accuracy.

In one misleading assertion, Tinubu compared Nigeria’s quarterly GDP growth to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) annual forecast of 3.4%. Analysts noted that such comparisons are not methodologically sound.

The most inaccurate claim involved the revenue-to-debt service ratio. Tinubu stated it had dropped from 97% to below 50% under his administration. But data from the Budget Office shows the initial ratio was significantly lower than 97%, rendering this claim false.

Another unverified claim was that 153,000 workers benefited from a N30 billion loan scheme. Africa Check found no public data or official reports to support this figure, rating the claim unproven.

In conclusion, while the president’s address included several verifiable and accurate economic achievements, some claims were either exaggerated, lacked supporting data, or were based on misleading comparisons.

The findings underscore the importance of rigorous data verification, especially in a politically charged environment where public trust in economic narratives is vital.