Nigeria’s Stabilisation Fund Triples as Excess Crude Account Rises 13% in Two Years

Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account (ECA) increased by 13 per cent over the past two years, while the Stabilisation Account surged more than threefold, according to an analysis of presentations made by the Accountant-General of the Federation to the National Economic Council (NEC).

The review, which covered 15 NEC meetings held between June 15, 2023, and October 23, 2025, revealed that the ECA grew from $473,754.57 at President Bola Tinubu’s first NEC meeting to $535,823.39 at the most recent session—an uptick of $62,068.82. Over the same period, the Stabilisation Account rose sharply from ₦26.63 billion to ₦87.67 billion, representing a gain of ₦61.03 billion or about 229 per cent. Similarly, the Development of Natural Resources Fund expanded from ₦96.90 billion to ₦141.59 billion, marking a 46 per cent increase.

A month-by-month breakdown showed fluctuations in the Stabilisation and Natural Resources funds before steady recoveries through 2025. The Stabilisation Fund dipped to ₦17.21 billion in April 2024 before rebounding, while the Natural Resources Fund fell to ₦26.85 billion in November 2024 before climbing to ₦141.59 billion by October 2025. The ECA, in contrast, remained relatively stagnant before recording slight gains in the latter half of 2025.

Established in 2004 under the Olusegun Obasanjo administration, the ECA serves as a fiscal buffer to save oil earnings above benchmark prices. The Stabilisation Account cushions state and local governments against revenue shocks, while the Development of Natural Resources Fund supports diversification and investment in non-oil resources.

Although the ECA’s recent 13 per cent growth signals modest recovery, the account remains a fraction of its peak—over $20 billion in 2008 during the oil boom under President Umaru Yar’Adua. Its decline over the years has been attributed to frequent withdrawals and oil price fluctuations.

The NEC’s decisions during the review period influenced these fiscal outcomes. In December 2023, President Tinubu reconstituted ad-hoc committees on crude oil theft and economic affairs—originally formed under former President Muhammadu Buhari—to address falling oil output, which had dipped below 800,000 barrels per day before rebounding to about 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025.

Throughout the two-year span, the NEC also backed key economic programmes, including the $617.7 million i-DICE initiative to boost tech innovation and employment, as well as nationwide food security and power sector reforms. In October 2025, the council approved a coordinated crackdown on gold smuggling and endorsed the revitalisation of security training institutions.

The National Economic Council—chaired by the Vice President and comprising all 36 state governors, the Central Bank Governor, and key ministers—meets monthly to coordinate Nigeria’s economic policy. Since the Tinubu administration began, the council has convened at least 15 times, shaping major fiscal and development strategies amid ongoing economic reforms such as fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange unification.