Makinde Faces Succession Battle as PDP Crisis Intensifies in Oyo

Governor Seyi Makinde is walking a tight political rope as he prepares to name a successor ahead of the 2027 governorship election, a task made more difficult by a deeply fragmented Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) both in Oyo and at the national level.

Political analysts warn that Makinde risks becoming the latest in a long line of Oyo governors unable to successfully install a successor — a pattern that has persisted since the return to democracy in 1999.


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Four Major Hurdles Before Makinde

1. A crisis-torn PDP at the national level
The party remains split into rival camps, with court battles threatening its ability to field candidates. The outcome of this conflict could determine the strength of PDP structures in Oyo.


2. Deepening rifts within Oyo PDP
Many stakeholders accuse Makinde of centralising power and sidelining loyalists. Growing internal resistance could complicate congresses and the governorship primary.


3. An emboldened APC backed by the centre
The opposition party is working to reconcile factions and leverage federal influence under President Bola Tinubu, who needs Oyo in 2027 to strengthen his re-election bid.


4. A tighter electoral climate under a new INEC leadership
With BVAS, improved monitoring and digital transparency, analysts predict that influence and incumbency may no longer tilt election outcomes as before.




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A History Makinde Must Break

Oyo’s political history shows a recurring pattern of failed succession plans:

Governor Outcome

Lam Adesina (1999–2003) Lost re-election; no successor produced
Rashidi Ladoja (2003–2007) Impeachment crisis weakened structure; could not secure succession
Adebayo Alao-Akala (2007–2011) Failed in bid to install successor
Abiola Ajimobi (2011–2019) Could not deliver Adelabu as successor in 2019


Despite completing two terms and commanding strong influence, even Ajimobi could not overcome Oyo’s anti-incumbency tide.


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National PDP Feud Complicates Future

The party is currently split between two leadership blocs:

Makinde/Turaki/Arapaja faction

Wike/Mohammed/Anyanwu faction


Ongoing lawsuits risk nullifying congresses and primaries pending resolution. Analysts fear Oyo could face the same uncertainty seen in Osun and Ekiti.


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Analysts Weigh In

Experts differ on Makinde’s chances:

Dr Ayantayo Ojo (Kola Daisi University):
“Makinde is increasingly isolated within PDP. Without unity, grooming a loyal successor will be difficult.”

Dr Yemi Farounbi (former ambassador):
“The real threat lies in the PDP’s national instability. If unresolved, the party may not even field candidates.”

Prof. Olumuyiwa Familusi (UI):
“A successor is possible, but only through fair internal democracy, not imposition.”

Dr Adebukola Ayoola (Ilesa University):
“Makinde has the structure and influence to deliver a successor.”



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Zoning and Age Criteria Ignite New Tensions

Makinde recently suggested that his successor must be under 52 years old, a remark critics describe as an attempt to predetermine the race. The opposition APC called the statement “arrogant”, while agitators from Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso and Oyo zones insist it is their turn to produce the next governor.

Since 1999, governors have emerged almost exclusively from Ibadan, deepening resentment across other regions. Zoning advocates argue that equity demands a non-Ibadan successor in 2027.


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Outlook

Makinde remains popular, backed by achievements in infrastructure, education, security coordination and workers’ welfare. But popularity alone may not be enough to override a divided party and a resurgent opposition.

Whether he can break Oyo’s long-standing succession jinx will depend on unity within the PDP, acceptance of internal democracy, and the balance of regional interests ahead of 2027.