Nigeria Struggles to Hit OPEC Oil Output Target Under Tinubu in 2025

A review of production figures from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries shows that Nigeria, under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, failed to consistently meet its crude oil production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day for much of 2025. Although the country met the target in a few months, overall output remained below quota for most of the year, particularly in the second half as daily averages dipped repeatedly.

Data indicate that production levels slipped in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, with average daily output often falling short of the quota. Industry analysts warn that persistent shortfalls could weaken government revenue and broader economic growth, especially given the heavy reliance on crude exports.

The shortfall also adds pressure to Nigeria’s efforts to meet ambitious oil revenue targets and local refinery demands, both of which depend on stable and sustained crude oil production. Experts continue to call for strengthened policies and investment to address ongoing operational and security challenges in the oil sector.