Nigeria’s Crude Oil Output Inches Up in October, Still Below OPEC Quota

Nigeria’s average crude oil production inched up slightly to 1.401 million barrels per day in October 2025, according to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report released Wednesday.

The figure marks a marginal increase from September’s 1.39 million barrels per day but remains below the country’s OPEC production quota of roughly 1.5 million barrels per day. This shortfall represents the third consecutive month Nigeria has failed to meet its assigned target, last occurring in July 2025.

The production gap comes as the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, prepares to request a higher quota at this month’s OPEC meeting. Lokpobiri recently told the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s media team that Nigeria’s current quota no longer reflects its actual production potential. He indicated that the upcoming OPEC session provides an opportunity to push for an increase to at least two million barrels per day.

“The OPEC quota is subject to periodic review, and by November, when we attend the annual meeting, we will make a strong case for a higher quota for Nigeria. This is the right time to seek an upward revision to two million barrels per day or more,” Lokpobiri said.

OPEC data show Nigeria’s average production for the third quarter was 1.444 million barrels per day, down from 1.481 million barrels in the second quarter and 1.468 million barrels in the first quarter. The figures highlight ongoing challenges in sustaining production despite government efforts and fresh upstream investments.

Globally, OPEC reported that oil supply in October exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day, reversing the 400,000-barrel deficit from September. The increase was driven mainly by non-OPEC production, led by the United States, which accounted for over half of the 890,000-barrel global production rise.

Market analysts note that oil prices have remained volatile, ranging between $82 and $86 per barrel, amid mixed signals from slowing global demand and steady output from non-OPEC producers.

Nigeria’s monthly production figures this year show significant fluctuations, peaking at 1.529 million barrels per day in April before gradually declining to 1.401 million barrels per day in September. The trend reflects persistent operational and sectoral challenges, even as the government seeks to stabilize output and attract investment.