World Bank: Tinubu’s Reforms Showing Promise, But Nigerians Yet to Feel the Impact

The World Bank has acknowledged that Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu are beginning to produce positive macroeconomic outcomes. However, it cautioned that these gains have not yet translated into improved living standards for the majority of Nigerians.

This assessment was detailed in the Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU), titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” released on Wednesday in Abuja. The report evaluates Nigeria’s recent economic performance and outlines critical policy priorities aimed at ensuring inclusive and sustainable development.

According to the report, Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 up from 3.5% during the same period in 2024. The growth was largely driven by stronger activity in the services and non-oil sectors, alongside modest improvements in oil production and agriculture.

The World Bank also highlighted an improved external position, with foreign reserves rising above $42 billion and the current account surplus climbing to 6.1% of GDP. Fiscal performance was also noted as stable, with the federal deficit holding at 2.6% of GDP despite declining oil revenues. In a positive shift, Nigeria’s public debt is projected to drop from 42.9% to 39.8% of GDP marking the first reduction in over a decade.

Despite these macroeconomic improvements, the Bank warned that most Nigerians are not yet benefiting from the reforms. High food inflation and widespread poverty continue to strain households, with the cost of a basic food basket reportedly increasing fivefold between 2019 and 2024.

“The Nigerian government has taken bold steps to stabilise the economy, and these efforts are beginning to yield results,” said Mathew Verghis, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria. “But macroeconomic stability alone is not enough. The true measure of success will be how these reforms improve the daily lives of Nigerians especially the poor and vulnerable.”

The Bank identified three urgent areas of focus for policymakers:

1. Curbing food inflation by removing trade barriers and addressing inefficiencies in agriculture and logistics;


2. Improving public spending through greater efficiency and transparency;


3. Expanding social protection with consistent, domestically funded cash transfer programs for the most vulnerable.


Samer Matta, the Bank’s Senior Economist for Nigeria, noted that while the economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with growth forecast to rise from 4.2% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2027, rising inflation remains a major concern.

“Food inflation remains the biggest tax on the poor,” Matta said, urging continued monetary discipline and structural reforms to ensure economic recovery benefits reach ordinary citizens.